I had a rough week last week, so I decided to review my picks and see if I could find out where I went wrong. Here’s what I learned:
• Don’t trust the Cardinals. I should have seen this one coming, but what did I know? Despite a decade of futility, I thought they could head into the Meadowlands and beat a desperate Jets team. Six Brett Favre touchdowns later, I had my answer.
• Pittsburgh is tough. Again, I knew this one already, but I thought the Ravens would be able to take advantage of some Pittsburgh injuries to upset the Steelers on Monday night. Credit QB Ben Roethlisberger and an inspired fill-in ground effort with keeping the Steelers moving and racking up points against the Ravens, and in the still-unsettled AFC, Pittsburgh looks more and more like a Super Bowl squad.
• The NFC East is T-O-U-G-H. Forget the best four teams; right now, the NFC East might have the best four quarterbacks in the NFL. Tony Romo is a star, Donovan McNabb is as deadly as ever, Eli Manning continues to mature and Jason Campbell has the Redskins back in the hunt after a disappointing opening loss. They handled the Cowboys at home last week, and this division will be a dogfight all season long.
I could go on and on (Kansas City beating the Broncos?!), but you get my point – when it comes to NFL, conventional wisdom changes every week. With that in mind, here’s how I see Week 5.
Seattle (1-2) at NY Giants (3-0): After the week that was in the NFC, it’s possible that the Giants are the best team in football right now. Of course, they’re facing a better-than-their-record Seattle team, and have been historically bad record coming off their bye week, so they could absolutely screw it up. But I think it will take time for Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck to get in synch with returning injured receivers Bobby Engram and Deion Branch, and without much of a running game, the Giants should be able to stifle the Seahawks’ attack and stay unbeaten. Score: NY Giants 23, Seattle 17.
Tennessee (4-0) at Baltimore (2-1): The Titans and Bills join the Giants as the only remaining unbeaten teams, and Tennessee draws a stiff challenge this week –the Ravens, who should have beaten the Steelers at home last week before losing in overtime. Tennessee has one of the most active defenses in the NFL, as well as a solid running game and an adequate quarterback in Kerry Collins, while Baltimore is relying on rookie QB Joe Flacco now that they’ve suffered injuries in the running game. In a defensive battle, the Titans will pressure Baltimore into multiple turnovers and score just enough to win. Score: Tennessee 17, Baltimore 13.
Washington (3-1) at Philadelphia (2-2): The Eagles, flying high two weeks ago, got grounded by the Bears last week and could be the odd team out in the NFC East shuffle. Philadelphia’s defense is a lot of fun to watch, but they still give up too many easy points, while Washington, coming off the Dallas win, is clicking. Philly is always tough at home, and staring down the barrel of a multi-game deficit in the division, I think they’ll find a way to get to Campbell and hold off the Redskins’ attack. McNabb is due for a big game. Score: Philadelphia 31, Washington 27.
Pittsburgh (3-1) at Jacksonville (2-2): Roethlisberger is the key for the Steelers here – if the line gives him time to throw and he avoids dumb mistakes, he has the ability to keep his team ahead the entire game. Jacksonville has always been a power rushing team, and after some early-season injuries, they appear to be rounding into form. Still, the defense looked shaky against Houston last week, although they found a way to win. Pittsburgh will put some points on the board early and clamp down late, keeping the Jags at bay. Score: Pittsburgh 24, Jacksonville 17.
Minnesota (1-3) at New Orleans (2-2): Drew Brees has been playing fantastic football, even after losing his top two receivers (Jeremy Shockey and Marques Colston). He’s the reason the Saints are .500, and the reason they still have a chance to win the NFC South. The Vikings need to start winning, but there’s no reason to think that they’ll do it in New Orleans this week, even though Adrian Peterson could have a field day with the Saints’ defense. New Orleans will outscore the Vikings on Monday night. Score: New Orleans 38, Minnesota 34.
Quick picks: Buffalo stays unbeaten by knocking off Arizona, San Diego will outlast Miami, Denver will hold off spirited Tampa Bay, Green Bay will do just enough to beat Atlanta and New England will bounce back to beat the 49ers.
Last week’s record: 4-6. Overall: 25-15.
(A six-game challenge between columnist ML Smith and I).
Kansas City 27, Carolina 24.
Philadelphia 27, Washington 13.
Dallas 38, Cincinnati 14.
New Orleans 31, Minnesota 20.
New England 24, San Francisco 23.
Arizona 24, Buffalo 14.
Matt: Carolina, Philadelphia, Dallas, New Orleans, New England, Buffalo.
Records: Smith 9-9, Rohr 13-5.