We’re already looking at the quarter pole of the NFL season – after this weekend, some teams will have played four games (don’t forget, byes start this Sunday) – and that’s enough of a sample to separate the wheat from the chaff, so to speak, which calls for an evaluation. The verdict? It’s surprising just how good the NFC has gotten.
Only a few years ago, the AFC featured the league’s dominant teams (New England), toughest defenses (Pittsburgh) and best divisional matchups. Now? Looking at it on paper, you could argue that the league’s top four teams reside in the NFC. The Giants, Cowboys, Eagles and Packers are legitimate Super Bowl challengers, and Tampa Bay, Washington and New Orleans are all capable of superior efforts on any given day. With Tom Brady going down, Peyton Manning struggling and new teams (the Titans, Bills and Broncos are all 3-0) rising to the top of the AFC, it looks like last year’s Giants’ Super Bowl win wasn’t a fluke – the balance of power in the NFL has shifted.
With that in mind, here’s a look at this week’s picks.
Atlanta (2-1) at Carolina (2-1): Falcons fans deserve some good news after last year’s Michael Vick/Bobby Petrino debacle, and they’ve got it so far this season, behind new QB Matt Ryan and speedy running back Michael Turner. The Panthers surprised me last weekend, looking lackluster in a loss to the Vikings, but I think they’ll bounce back at home here. Atlanta’s wins have come against inferior competition – the Panthers’ defense should be able to contain Turner and shut down the Falcons’ offense. Score: Carolina 23, Atlanta 10.
Arizona (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2): The Cardinals are a defensive battle in Washington last week away from still being undefeated, while the Jets have yet to thrive under Brett Favre this season. This will be a good road test for the Cardinals, and I think they’re for real – Kurt Warner is playing some of his best football in years, and the offense seems to be able to score at will. The Jets have a short week after traveling back from a Monday night loss, and they’ll go down at home here. Score: Arizona 31, NY Jets 20.
Green Bay (2-1) at Tampa Bay (2-1): The Packers got outclassed at home last week by Dallas, but make no mistake – they’re still one of the best teams in the NFC. Tampa Bay capitalized on a number of mistakes to come back from a 10-point fourth quarter deficit to beat the Bears last weekend, but the joyride ends against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this Sunday. They’ll pick apart Tampa’s secondary and earn the win. Score: Green Bay 27, Tampa Bay 17.
Washington (2-1) at Dallas (3-0): The Cowboys continue to be tested early, but they’ve been up to the challenge so far, and they should handle Washington this weekend, despite the continued maturation of QB Jason Campbell. When these two teams meet later in the season in Washington, look out, but for now, Tony Romo and the high-octane Dallas offense will blow past the Redskins. Score: Dallas 31, Washington 17.
Baltimore (2-0) at Pittsburgh (2-1): The Steelers took an absolute beating in last week’s loss to the Eagles, and there’s no guarantee they’ll bounce back against the physical Ravens this week. In fact, I’m calling for a Baltimore upset – QB Ben Roethlisberger is banged-up, and in a defensive battle, the Ravens force some key turnovers and hang on for the win, even with rookie Joe Flacco under center. Score: Baltimore 16, Pittsburgh 13.
Quick picks: Cincinnati will keep Cleveland miserable, Jacksonville will handle Houston, Denver should have no problem with Kansas City, Philadelphia bounces back to edge Chicago and Tennessee will beat Minnesota.
Last week’s record: 7-3. Overall: 21-9.
Three costly mistakes did me in: I assumed Arizona’s defense could easily handle Washington; I assumed Philly wouldn’t be able to bounce back against Pittsburgh and instead, their defense shut the Steelers down; and finally, I believed that Carolina would out-gun Minnesota. I should have wound up 2-4; a mysterious brain malfunction caused me to pick Denver over Drew Brees and New Orleans but I got lucky – Denver’s defense came through when it counted for a 34-32 win.
Picks for next weekend:
Cincinnati 24, Cleveland 17.
Tennessee 31, Minnesota 6.
Jacksonville 27, Houston 21.
New Orleans 41, San Francisco 17.
Arizona 17, New York Jets 13.
St. Louis 24, Buffalo 21
Matt: Cincinnati, Tennessee, Jacksonville, New Orleans, Arizona, Buffalo.
Records: Smith 6-6, Rohr 9-3.