Rather than write about the first two frenetic weeks of the 2008 NFL season (I’ve got more column space for that elsewhere), I wanted to take a look at baseball’s pennant races. With just 10 days left in the regular season as this goes to print, there’s only one division winner already determined – the L.A. Angels, who locked up the abysmal AL West at the beginning of the month. The rest of the front-runners still have a long way to go, and the wild card races will probably come down to the final day of the season, too.
So here’s one sportswriter’s thoughts about playoff chances for each of the still-contending teams in each league, with their World Series odds (as determined by me) given.
American League
L.A. Angels (2:1): I’m making the Angels my prohibitive favorites to represent the AL in the World Series, based in large part on their deep rotation (John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Jered Weaver are the most potent top three for any of the probable playoff teams), a bullpen that has been as stellar as usual and a lineup lacking major power but solid throughout. Closer Francisco Rodriguez set the saves record this season, and although his numbers aren’t as overwhelming as usual, he’s been very clutch all year. They’ve got speed throughout the lineup, a good mix of veterans and youngsters and one of baseball’s smartest managers in Mike Scioscia.
Boston Red Sox (4:1): The Red Sox moved into a near-tie for first place in the AL East this week, and don’t forget, they’re the defending champs. They’re experienced in October, have one of baseball’s best bullpens and have arguably the deepest lineup in the game. The middle of the order, in particular, is imposing – David Ortiz, Kevin Youklis and Jason Bay are all tough outs. But Boston’s weakness this year is its starting rotation – only lefty Jon Lester has been dominant, while 2007 Cy Young candidate Josh Beckett has battled through injuries with mediocre numbers, and Daisuke Matsuzaka, despite 17 wins, has flirted with disaster all season. They’ve had the Angels’ number in the playoffs over the last couple of seasons, though, and are still a serious threat.
Tampa Bay Rays (5:1): All season long, I’ve been waiting for the Rays to slow down, and they’ve so far successfully avoided a collapse. Despite Boston closing their division lead this week, they still could hang on to the AL East crown, and even if they somehow miss the playoffs (doubtful), this year has been a terrific success. But there are signs that the joyride is coming to an end – the Rays are only 4-9 in September, and injuries have hurt the core of their lineup. Once in the playoffs, they’ll be tough – Scott Kazmir and James Shields are a potent 1-2 punch at the top of rotation – but they probably don’t have the depth to win it all.
Chicago White Sox (15:1): The Sox have been in first place for most of the season, but a number of factors keep them from being serious contenders – their bullpen has collapsed down the stretch, they’ve also been hit by injuries, and they have a dogfight with the Twins (see below) on their hands for the AL Central crown. They’ve still got some top-line starters, but I don’t think this is their year.
Minnesota Twins (50:1): As of this writing, the Twins are hanging tough in the AL Central, and they’ve put together a classic Minnesota season – an overachieving lineup, led by Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, a young but sturdy pitching staff and one of baseball’s most reliable bullpens, led by closer Joe Nathan, who has had an amazing season. Still, they can’t hang with the big boys in the AL, and they’re a long shot to make the playoffs at all. Good year, but not good enough.
National League
Chicago Cubs (4:1): The Cubs have been a force in the National League all season, and they’re my World Series favorites heading into the postseason. They have baseball’s best home record, a good combination of power and speed throughout the lineup, a solid if not outstanding rotation and a bullpen with a lot of live arms. Add experienced manager Lou Piniella to the mix, and the Cubbies have a great shot to get to the Fall Classic.
NY Mets (5:1): I made the Mets my preseason favorites in the National League, but they’re on shaky ground at the moment, with a bullpen that’s falling apart and questions about their starting rotation. Johan Santana is worth two wins in a playoff series (as long the Mets can score some runs for him), but they won’t make the World Series unless their relievers can find a way to protect late-game leads. They still have a potent lineup, but manager Jerry Manuel needs to find a way to coax some reliable innings out of his bullpen.
Milwaukee Brewers (8:1): Two words: C.C. Sabathia. The former Indian has been a godsend for the Brewers, catapulting them to the top of the NL wild card standings. But it’s been an odd week in Milwaukee, with manager Ned Yost being fired, and it’s unclear at this point how that’s going to affect the team. Unrest this last in the season has to be tough, even for a contending team, so even though I think the Brewers will eventually lock up the league’s final playoff spot, they won’t be the threat I thought they might be.
Los Angeles Dodgers (12:1): Another late-season addition, Manny Ramirez, has the Dodgers playing their best baseball of the season, and with a big home field advantage and a young lineup, they’re charging at the right time. But their rotation is not dependable, and those same young batters are prone to a lot of hacking. In other words, probably not a world championship-caliber team.
Philadelphia Phillies (15:1): The Phillies are in a tight race with the Mets in the NL East, but I don’t like their chances of advancing in the playoffs. Their pitching, although solid recently, won’t scare many teams (other than Cole Hamels), and the lineup isn’t clicking like it was last fall. Still, with their infield trio of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and reigning MVP Jimmy Rollins, they could certainly cause trouble.
Houston Astros and Arizona Diamonbacks (100-1): Still in the conversation, but both teams are ultimate long shots, and even if they do make the playoffs, they’ll be undone by shoddy pitching (Houston) and undisciplined batters (Arizona).