With the Olympics finally over and regular season football still a few weeks away (my esteemed colleague is promising a comprehensive NFL preview next week), Major League Baseball has the national spotlight all to itself for the time being. And though there are a few weeks left that may alter the way things finally shake down (remember the Mets were seven-and-a-half up with 17 to play last year and missed the playoffs), let’s take a look at some of the surprises – both good and bad – of the 2008 baseball season. Hey, it’s better than a column on the “Redeem Team,” right?
Top three positive surprises
1. Tampa Bay Rays – Yes, it’s a coincidence that the Rays stand 30 games from their first-ever division title during their first season without the word “Devil” as part of their name. But it’s an eerie one. More likely, Tampa’s success can be attributed to its feisty, black-rimmed glasses-wearing manager Joe Maddon, whose unconventional style has inspired his team to an improbable joyride through the rigorous A.L. East. Maddon and his Rays are having one of those years that defy logic. Whether it’s overcoming their mediocre offense (the Rays rank 19th in baseball in runs scored), Maddon’s kooky decision-making (in another season, walking Josh Hamilton with the bases loaded in the ninth inning would have backfired and had media-types second-guessing for weeks) or injuries to key cogs like Scott Kazmir, Evan Longoria, Troy Percival and Carl Crawford, the Rays just seem to have that magic intangible that always accompanies these types of rags-to-riches stories. Looking for something a little more concrete? The Rays rank second in baseball in ERA and, perhaps more importantly, their bullpen, which used to be worse than a laughingstock, has been rock solid. Retreads like Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell and Dan Wheeler have been absolutely stellar. Rays in the World Series? It’s no longer inconceivable.
2. Carlos Quentin – Quick. Who is the leading candidate for the American League MVP Award? Alex Rodriguez? Miguel Cabrera? David Ortiz? Nope, nope and nope. Those preseason favorites have taken a back seat to the White Sox’s Carlos Quentin, he of the 14 homers and 63 RBI in 395 career at bats coming into this season. This year, Quentin has 36 dingers, 99 RBI and an .973 OPS. Another surprise story, Josh Hamilton, would be the front-runner for this award were it not for the Rangers’ sub -.500 status. Quentin is the best bat on a White Sox team fighting for playoff positioning.
3. Cliff Lee – I tried to pick a National League story for the third position, but neither the upstart Florida Marlins nor the spunky St. Louis Cardinals could overcome the story of Lee, who has been a good pitcher before, but never a spectacular one. Lee is coming off a year (2007) in when he went 5-8 with an ERA north of 6. It’s true that Lee won 46 games between 2004-2006, but with ERAs of 5.43, 3.79 and 4.40. This year, Lee is already 19-2, with an ERA under 2.50. He has struck out 145 batters and walked only 27, and his WHIP is an outstanding 1.07. Add into this that Lee’s Cleveland Indians club is three games under .500 at this writing (following a nine-game winning streak) and not only is he the runaway Cy Young choice in the Junior Circuit, he’s also one of the three most pleasant surprises of the 2008 season.
Top three negative surprises
1. Teams with high expectations – Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, Colorado Rockies, Cleveland Indians – All four of these teams entered 2008 with sky-high expectations for different reasons. The Mariners added former-Orioles fireballer Erik Bedard to a solid 2007 squad. The Tigers added Miguel Cabrera (along with the now virtually washed-up Dontrelle Willis) to an already high-powered attack. The Rockies went to the World Series after a magical September and October run. And the Indians were just one win away from the Fall Classic, pushing the eventual champion Red Sox to seven games. Well, what a difference a year makes! Although baseball doesn’t have the rampant parity of the NFL, it’s getting harder and harder to tell from one year to the next who is going to be good, especially among small market teams. A lot has to do with bullpens. Look at the Rays. And when the Tigers and Indians had their good seasons, they were led by dominant relief corps. Oh, that middle relief. It is a fickle creature.
2. Atlanta Braves – If anybody has a right to complain about injuries, it’s the Braves. John Smoltz went down early to season-ending shoulder surgery. Tom Glavine is on his way to the dreaded Dr. Andrews visit. Mike Hampton has given them nothing (again). Chipper Jones is having a great year but has missed a bunch of time. Tim Hudson and Rafael Soriano have missed games. And Jeff Francoeur, one of the vaunted offense’s main cogs, has been absolutely dreadful. His .632 OPS reads like a misprint. I am embarrassed to say that I gave the Braves a legitimate shot to win the N.L. East. And though injuries have played a part, this is obviously a team that never had it and never will. The Braves need a radical reconstruction, beginning with that aging rotation. Bobby Cox must be so ashamed.
3. New York Yankees – It had to be said, though I won’t belabor the point, especially since I think they have a shot to revive their season this week. But the Yankees’ record is actually better than their play. An eight-game and a seven-game winning streak have allowed them to stay above water. But this is a team that does all the little things that losing teams do. Their talent and payroll won’t allow them to slip to a sub-.500 team. But it hasn’t been good. They don’t hit in the clutch, the bullpen has been decent except when they absolutely have needed big outs (see the meltdown in Anaheim earlier this month) and the starting rotation has been decimated by injuries. There is still a chance to get off this list. But partial collapses will be required of the Red Sox, White Sox and Twins. Don’t hold your breath Bombers fans. Looks like the ol’ Stadium won’t be seeing October baseball in its final season.