The Yankees are in serious danger of going to the well one too many times.
In 2005, the Bombers began the season with a putrid 11-19 mark and found themselves a middling 39-39 squad on July 1. The Yanks ended up winning 95 games and squeaked out a division title on the penultimate day of the season.
In 2006, Joe Torre’s team played decent ball throughout, though they began only 11-10 and were a relatively pedestrian 40-30 nearly halfway through the year before ripping off 97 wins and tying the Mets for the best record in baseball.
Last year, the Yankees were 21-29 through 50 games and 38-41 through 79. At one point they were 14.5 games behind the Red Sox in the A.L. East before capturing the wild card with 94 wins.
This season, the last for the team in Yankee Stadium, has been yet another exercise in first-half mediocrity, though in comparison to last year, the Yanks should be positively giddy about where they stand. As of this writing they are 48-42, 7.5 games behind the Tampa Bay Rays – no, that’s not a typo – in their division and 4.5 games behind the Red Sox for the wild card. They have endured a number of substantial injuries to key cogs of their team. Alex Rodriguez missed nearly a month. Jorge Posada missed more than a month and is still throwing like he has serious shoulder issues. Chien Ming-Wang, the pitcher with the most wins in the major leagues over the last two seasons, might be done for the year. Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon are on the shelf right now and their return dates are in doubt. Even a guy like Brian Bruney has been a big loss, going down in April after a superb start in the bullpen. Derek Jeter looks old and slow; Bobby Abreu has been a disappointment; Robinson Cano, despite a recent hot streak, hasn’t reached .260 yet and every aspect of the team – pitching, hitting and defense – has sputtered at some point this season.
Phew!
Yes, the Yankees have struggled because of injuries and there are aspects of their game – the hitting, in particular – that are bound to improve in the second half. But though Yankees fans might take solace in the fact that the team has bounced back from bad starts in recent years, there seem to be more substantial cracks in the foundation in 2008. Here, in no particular order, are the five main factors that might prevent the Yankees from making the playoffs for what would be the 14th consecutive season.
1. Derek Jeter – It might be unfair to list Derek Jeter as a Yankees liability. But take a look at the numbers that Jeter compiled over the season’s first 89 games: 4 HR, .281 BA, .343 OBP, .385 SLG, 48 R, 5 SB, 23 extra-base hits. By comparison, here are the numbers of the much-maligned Jose Reyes: 9 HR, .299 BA, .360 OBP, .486 SLG, 66 R, 32 SB, 41 extra-base hits. I know all about Jeter’s intangibles and if you needed to win one game or a series, you might still pick Jeter over Reyes. But over the long haul, Derek just isn’t cutting it anymore. He still hits .371 with runners in scoring position and two outs, but those 35 at bats cannot wipe out the ineffectiveness of the other 292. His diminishing range in the field has been well-chronicled and even his arm seems weaker this year. All this adds up to a shocking conclusion: Derek Jeter is hurting the Yankees more than he is helping them. So far. He could very well bounce back in the second half and he needs to if the Yankees are going to make a run. He’s been slowed by a few injuries himself, but unlike the Yankees’ other cornerstone, Mariano Rivera, Jeter doesn’t seem to be improving with age. Nothing is more symbolic of the Yankees’ crumbling empire than Jeter’s decline. He needs a bounce-back second half if the Yanks are going to make a run.
2. Darrell Rasner, Sidney Ponson, Kei Igawa, Dan Giese, etc. etc. etc. – Injuries to Chien Ming-Wang, Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes have forced the Yankees to rely on a bevy of unproven and substandard Major League starters. Rasner had a good run initially but has cooled off considerably and it’s now a plus when he gives you five decent innings. The Yankees got by in 2005 with retreads like Aaron Small (who went 10-0 and the never won another game in the majors) and Shawn Chacon, but how often is that going to happen? The Yanks need to make a deal for someone serviceable that could get on a roll (similar to a guy like Cory Lidle, who they acquired in the middle of 2006) and the hope Wang and/or Hughes and Kennedy can provide a lift over the season’s final six weeks.
3. The hitting isn’t as good as people think – Don’t get me wrong. The Yankees can still rake. They’re just not overwhelming enough anymore to make up for deficiencies in other areas of the team. Think about it: the only two Yankees position players in their primes are Alex Rodriguez, who has been good, and Robinson Cano, who has struggled. Jason Giambi has been decent but he’s still a one-dimensional 38-year-old. Jeter’s woes have been chronicled. Posada had a career year last season, but has struggled through injuries and ineffectiveness this year. Abreu, Matsui and Damon have all been productive at times (particularly Damon) but they are breaking down as well. The Yankees, whose organizational philosophy has seen them focus on young pitching in recent years, have to start thinking about getting some younger and more athletic everyday players.
4. Tampa Bay – It’s not that I think the Rays are going to win 100 games. They will almost certainly cool off at some point and come back to the pack. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Yankees have a chance to pass the Rays during their Sept. 12-14 series at the Stadium. But the Rays are good. There is genuine talent there. And the bullpen, which used to be the way to get to them, is rock solid. And so, unlike the lead the Orioles amassed in 2005, the Rays aren’t doing this with mirrors. And while they might slump at some point, their youth will counteract the old “dog days” syndrome. It all adds up to a third contending team in the division, which means fewer wins for the Yankees. Just from a mathematics level, that’s discouraging news for the Bombers, who already have to make up 8 games in the loss column.
5. Joe Torre – OK, this one might be a bit of a stretch. But it is worth noting that of the 13 consecutive seasons the Yankees have made the playoffs, Torre was at the helm for 12 of them (Buck Showalter managed the team in 1995). Yes, Torre had his tactical flaws. He overworked his bullpen, he relied a little too heavily on fading veterans and sometimes his laid-back style frustrated fans, who felt the veterans sometimes needed a good kick in the rear end. And still, he never missed the postseason. Yes, the Yankees have to get younger. But for 2008, Joe Girardi has to do everything he can to get the most out of his older stars. Remember, Girardi’s previous success as a manager came with the Baby Marlins in 2006. I think Girardi has the makings of a good manager but at times this season he seems like he is trying to manage his way to a victory as opposed to riding his battle-tested horses. Torre never panicked, even when it seemed like he should. Girardi shouldn’t completely eschew the lessons of his accomplished predecessor.
Of course, here’s hoping I’m wrong and the Yankees bounce back and win World Championship No. 27. But given all of these weaknesses, I wouldn’t exactly hold my breath.