By the time you read this column, Game 1 of the 2008 NBA Finals will already be in the books, and unless the Boston Celtics managed to blitz the Los Angeles Lakers with a home-court barrage, the purple and gold will already have a 1-0 series lead.
And even if the Celtics managed a win at home (entirely plausible, by the way, considering they’re 10-1 in Boston so far this postseason), they are still the underdogs in this series. And they should be. While they were being pushed to the limit by inferior Atlanta and Cleveland teams, the Lakers were rolling through three of the league’s best teams this season – Phoenix, Utah and defending champion San Antonio. Kobe Bryant has finally figured out a way to dominate while involving his teammates (maybe it has something to do with the arrival of Pau Gasol, the best center he’s played with since Shaq was in town?), and he’s been absolutely Jordanesque at times in the playoffs. Last week’s series clincher against San Antonio was the perfect example.
The Lakers trailed by 17 at one point in the second quarter, but at no point did it look like the Spurs would be able to put the game away. A Laker run seemed inevitable, and when it came, fueled by Bryant and intense defensive pressure, San Antonio wilted. Bryant scored 17 of his 39 points in the fourth quarter, a vintage MJ game – he bided his time, waited until the Spurs got complacent and then dominated on both ends of the floor, exactly the way Jordan would have. He’s clearly the best player in the league right now, making this the biggest Finals matchup in the past several seasons (the Heat and Mavericks were exciting two years ago, but I was getting tired of the Spurs, frankly) and a must-capitalize situation for the league.
After an extended down period, the NBA has had something of a renaissance over the last two years, led by an influx of the best young talent to hit the league since the mid-80s. Even though Kobe is the league’s standard-bearer, LeBron James is an unbelievable talent, capable of taking over a game whenever he wants, and there are plenty of young scorers behind him capable of challenging for the scoring title. Point guard play, led by youngsters Chris Paul and Deron Williams and veterans like Steve Nash and Baron Davis, has been at its best level in years, and most importantly, the league has emerged mostly unscathed from the Tim Donaghy/referee gambling scandal that threatened to sideline it last summer. With all the trouble going on in the other major sports (steroids in baseball, the Patriots/Spygate investigation in the NFL, the NHL’s inability to gain national traction), the NBA has a chance to put its best foot forward, provided the Celtics and Lakers can combine for a engrossing Finals duel.
And my prediction? Well, put me down for a Lakers win in Game 1, followed by the Celtics bouncing back in Game 2. Tied 1-1, the series will head west, and I think the Lakers have the talent and home court advantage to win at least two of the three games scheduled there, and possibly close it out on their home court. If the series heads back to Boston, I could conceivably see it going seven games, but I think Kobe and Co. are going to be too much for the Celtics to handle, even with Boston’s super-aggressive defense. The X-factor for the Celts will be Ray Allen – Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett are virtually assured to play well, but Boston will only be able to outscore the Lakers if Allen is able to hit his shots and be productive. But I don’t think even that will stop Kobe Bryant, the best player in the game today, and the Lakers from winning the 2008 title.
And I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least mention this weekend’s Belmont Stakes, the chance for Big Brown to become horse racing’s first Triple Crown winner in 30 years. In the post drawing held this week on Wednesday, Big Brown earned the inside post, and he’ll be hoping to join 23 other winners who came from the rail since 1905, with the last being Empire Maker in 2003. His biggest competition figures to come from Japanese import Casino Drive, leaving from the fifth post and coming in at 7-2 odds. The horse won at the same track earlier this year and has been bred and trained for the longer distance of the mile-and-a-half Belmont.
But Big Brown’s trainer, the outspoken Rick Dutrow Jr., has no worries about his horse. After the post positions were announced this week, he said about Big Brown, “He is by far the best horse in the race. I’ve seen him run and I’ve seen the other horses run. It’s simple.” Bold words, especially considering Big Brown has been battling a cracked hoof that specialists say should not affect his run in the Stakes. If he wins, he would become only the second undefeated horse (he’s currently 5-for-5) in Triple Crown history, joining Seattle Slew (1977).
Can he do it? He’s the overwhelming favorite (the odds stood at 2-to-5 earlier in the week) and he’s definitely been the best horse in the two prior Triple Crown races. If his hoof truly doesn’t affect his run, you can look for him to remain with the pack through the early part of the race, and begin to make his move after the halfway point. If he has a little clearance, the only question will be if he has the endurance to hold off his challengers in what will be the longest race of his career so far.
History in two sports. What a way to kick off summer.