There’s a juicy – and possibly historic – storyline shaping up for the Belmont Stakes on June 7 in Elmont, New York – undefeated Big Brown, the winner of the first two legs of horse racing’s Triple Crown (the Kentucky Derby and this past weekend’s Preakness), may finally face the first real competition he’s had this spring – Japanese import Casino Drive, who’s also undefeated, albeit in only two races. Horse racing hasn’t seen a Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978, and since then, 10 horses have run at Belmont trying to become the 12th in history to win the sport’s three biggest stakes races. All have failed, undone by the length of the mile-and-a-half course and challenge of winning three races, against top contenders, in five weeks. It’s a unique challenge, as evidenced by the list of historical winners (see chart). And as dominant as Big Brown has been so far, he also has yet to be seriously threatened.
And if that’s indeed been the case (inferior competition), then the Belmont promises to be different, and not just because of Casino Drive, a commanding winner in the grade-two Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont on May 10. Casino Drive is the half-brother of recent Belmont winners Jazil (2006) and Rags to Riches (2007), and seems to have the pedigree and the strength to challenge Big Brown.
But even if Casino Drive falters, some Derby horses who were held out of the Preakness will be back on the track in the Belmont, stronger and presumably fresher than Big Brown. As the fourth horse this decade with a chance to cement the Triple Crown (Smarty Jones was the last in 2004), there’s a lot riding (pardon the pun) on Big Brown and trainer Rick Dutrow Jr.
For his part, Dutrow is an interesting story, nothing like a blue-blooded fortunate son that seems to come to mind when you hear “horse trainer.” Ten years ago, he was living in the tack room at a racetrack, having already had his training license suspended once for drug use and hounded by rumors that he doped his horses as well. The allegations soured his relationship with his father, an esteemed horse trainer in his own right who died of cancer in 1999 shortly after cutting ties with his son.
But Dutrow Jr. kept working and training horses, and his reputation has improved. He remains atypical, prone to outbursts and showmanship (he said of Casino Drive after Big Brown’s Preakness win, “No. 1, he looks like a nice horse. No. 2, I believe that he can’t beat our horse. So all the Japanese people are going to come over here, they thought Godzilla was dead. They’re going to find out he’s not dead. He’s here.”). But if Big Brown can win just one more race, he’ll be something a savior for horse racing, a shot in the arm for a sport that struggles to draw any mainstream attention despite its status as a favorite among bettors. Jockey Kent Desormeaux, who rode 3-year-old Real Quiet to wins in the Derby and the Preakness in 1998 only to lose by a nose in the Belmont, said of Big Brown, “This is the best horse I’ve ever ridden.” Strong words. Will they be prophetic?
Trouble in the Bronx
Not to rain all over fellow columnist and Yankee fan Danny Lanzetta’s take on the club (they’re doing well to be anywhere near .500 right now), but the Yankees look vulnerable. Sure, they’re missing two of their biggest bats (Jorge Posada, due back in a few weeks, and Alex Rodriguez, who returned on Tuesday), but no one in the lineup is hitting right now. Entering the week, they’d scored two runs or less in five of their last six games, and only three players (Derek Jeter, Hideki Matsui and the injured Posada) are hitting over .300. Jason Giambi, despite three homers over his last nine games, has been awful, and Robinson Cano (.204 avg., nine extra-base hits) and fill-in Morgan Ensberg (.214 avg., one extra-base hit) haven’t been much better. A-Rod and Jorge alone won’t be able to keep the team afloat – the hitting, particularly with runners on base, has to improve.
And the team’s pitching, a question mark coming into the season, hasn’t inspired playoff-level confidence. Mariano Rivera continues to amaze (only nine hits and no walks allowed in 17 innings) and Mike Mussina has been a pleasant surprise (six wins and a 3.99 ERA so far), but the rest of the staff has issues. Chien-Ming Wang has looked like an ace at times, but his latest poor performance in a big game (against the Mets this past Sunday) has me wondering about his composure under pressure. After the Indians lit him up twice in the postseason last year, Wang’s ability to come through in big spots is at the very least subject to discussion. Andy Pettitte has looked very hittable as well, and the young starters expected to step up this year, including Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, have been brutal.
All of which wouldn’t be a major concern (the Yankees are always a second-half team, and the pitching will gain confidence as the lineup comes around) if the Red Sox didn’t look so good. Even though the Yanks are only six games back as of this writing, the Sox are leading the league in hitting (an absurd .295 team average) and are playing lights-out at home (a 17-5 record). After a slow start, David Ortiz is starting to rake, and Daisuke Matsuzaka and Josh Beckett are a tough 1-2 punch at the top of the pitching staff. I don’t think the Yankees are out of it by any stretch of the imagination, but they need A-Rod and Posada to come back swinging, and more consistency from Wang and Pettitte, before they can think about threatening the Sox.
Year Winner
1919 Sir Barton
1930 Gallant Fox
1935 Omaha
1937 War Admiral
1941 Whirlaway
1943 Count Fleet
1946 Assault
1948 Citation
1973 Secretariat
1977 Seattle Slew
1978 Affirmed