February is traditionally the slowest month of the sports year. The NFL season has just ended, baseball has not yet begun, the NCAA Tournament is still several weeks away and the NBA’s and NHL’s regular seasons are slogging through their mid-season doldrums.
But with March comes not only a change in temperature – well, at least before 50 degree days became customary in February – but also a change in the sports climate as well. Playoff races are heating up, spring training games are under way and March Madness infects the whole nation with bracket fever.
And though the NBA playoffs won’t begin for another six weeks, the Western Conference is gearing up for one of the most hotly contested postseasons in league history. No fewer than six teams have a legitimate shot at reaching the Finals. Imagine a conference where the Denver Nuggets are carrying a winning percentage of nearly .600 and are currently on the outside looking in for a playoff spot. The Knicks, currently an insurmountable eight games out of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, would be a mind-boggling 18-and-a-half games out in the West. And so here’s a look at all nine teams that could make the playoffs in the West in order of their chances of reaching the Finals in June.
San Antonio Spurs
The champs are still the best if for no other reason than that no other Western Conference team has any sort of championship pedigree. Their Big 3 – Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker – is the best in basketball (sorry, Boston) and their defense, led by the ultra-physical Bruce Bowen, is still tops in the Association. Throw in the fact that the Spurs have struggled through injuries all season and still have the best record in a brutally difficult conference and it’s hard to pick against them. Plus, the acquisition of low-post demon Kurt Thomas was an underrated move that will keep Duncan fresh for the fourth quarters of playoff games.
Los Angeles Lakers
Right now, the Lakers are the chic pick to make the Finals. Pundits have pointed out that the Spurs might be too old and slow to keep up with Kobe and Company. What makes this year’s Lakers so dangerous is that the Company is a lot better than in years’ past. The trade for Pau Gasol was an obvious boost and the return of young guns Andrew Bynum and Trevor Ariza late in the season should help as well.
But there are some concerns. Gasol has never won a playoff game (0-12), much less a series and so it remains to be seen if he can be the second option on a championship squad. He’s not exactly Shaq in his prime. Also, will the Lakers be able to re-integrate Bynum into a rotation that looks comfortable without him, or will Bynum’s need for the ball down low limit Gasol’s productivity? Stay tuned.
Utah Jazz
The NBA’s fifth-highest scoring team has been somewhat inefficient on the defensive end. Of all the teams with a real shot at the championship, only the Lakers and Suns give up more points per game than the Jazz, who should be better than that given the low-post presence of Carlos Boozer and the game-changing disruptiveness of Andrei Kirilenko. But they have the game’s most underrated playmaker in Deron Williams and are the league’s best home team at 25-3. Their 13-19 road mark is cause for concern but if the Jazz can become consistent on the defensive end, watch out.
Phoenix Suns
The trade for Shaq seemed like a desperation move, a signal that coach Mike D’Antoni’s run-and-gun style is not fit to win a championship. Add in the fact that the professed reason they got Shaq – for a defensive presence down low – was never Diesel’s strong suit to begin with, and it seems likely that Steve Nash, Amare Stoudamire and the rest of the league’s most entertaining team are destined for yet another disappointing spring. Still, it will be fun to see if Shaq can re-motivate himself for one more run at a ring.
Dallas Mavericks
Something just isn’t right with this team and it can probably be traced back to Dirk Nowitzki’s famous meltdown in the 2006 Finals against a far-inferior Miami Heat squad. Dwyane Wade was up to the challenge and Dirk simply wasn’t. And now, after last year’s humiliating upset loss to the Golden State Warriors, there just seems to be a bit of a cloud around the Mavericks.
The long-rumored, finally completed deal for Jason Kidd changes the chemistry a bit, but maybe not for the better. There’s a lot of talent here but with rumblings about a rift between head coach Avery Johnson and the team (Johnson reportedly wanted to trade Dirk after last year’s first round ouster) Dallas just doesn’t seem like a team ready to make a serious run.
New Orleans Hornets
The feel-good-story of the NBA season is probably a year away from making a real run at a title. But the future is bright for a squad that features the league’s best (yes, best) point guard in Chris Paul along with fellow All-Star David West and an aging but still effective Peja Stojakovic. Don’t sleep on monster glass-man Tyson Chandler either. But the Hornets are just too young and inexperienced for anything but a possible first round victory, which would still be a stunning achievement for a team that won just 39 games a year ago.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have been OK, but that might not even be enough to get them to the playoffs in the lethal west. And that simply isn’t acceptable for a team with Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson and the league’s most versatile and oddly dominant player Marcus Camby. They probably will sneak into the postseason, but don’t expect much from George Karl’s underachieving squad.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors, whose improbable victory over the Mavericks in last year’s playoffs was as entertaining a series as the league has seen in years, are still somewhat of a sideshow.
They’re talented for sure – Baron Davis is often spectacular, Stephen Davis has surprisingly turned into a team leader and the supporting cast led by Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins is athletic and exciting – but they never get stops. And the unlikely reunion of Chris Webber and Don Nelson doesn’t come close to matching the major moves made by other teams in the conference.
Houston Rockets
This team would be ranked much higher were it not for the unfortunate injury to Yao Ming that has him out until next season. That said, the Rockets are rolling and are currently riding a 15-game winning streak. Also, their defensive intensity hasn’t really suffered under new coach Rick Adelman.
Still, with only Tracy McGrady to hold down the fort, the Rockets don’t have enough to do anything but squeeze into the playoffs as an easy-fodder eighth seed.