This seems like a good time to ruminate on college basketball, considering that this issue of the Beat would have come out on March 1 if not for that pesky leap year thing. Locally, it’s been a remarkable year for the Marist College women’s team. The Lady Red Foxes are, as of this writing, undefeated in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (16-0), in the midst of a 16-game winning streak, 26-2 overall and most notably, nationally ranked. Coming on the heels of last season’s incredible NCAA Tournament run, when Marist upset Ohio State and Middle Tennessee State to reach the Sweet 16 before bowing out against Tennessee, the Foxes are No. 21 in the country in the ESPN/USA Today coaches’ poll, ranked with some of the elite teams in the nation. The women are winning with a combination of veteran leadership – seniors Meg Dahlman and point guard Nikki Flores are a steady presence – and lockdown defensive effort. But the real story of the team is the probable MAAC Player of the Year, sophomore Rachele Fitz.
An Ohio native (one of several on the team), Fitz is leading the squad in scoring and rebounding and recently scored her 1,000th point, becoming the fastest player in Marist history to hit that mark. She’s already one of the best post players in the MAAC, and could become one of the best female athletes Marist has ever produced. With her in the lead, the Foxes will be fun to watch for the next month.
In the wider world of college basketball, the two best men’s teams met last weekend, with the Tennessee Volunteers upsetting the Memphis Tigers 66-62 on Feb. 23 to claim the top spot in the country. It’s been an extraordinarily strong year for college basketball, coming on the heels of a dramatic NCAA Tournament last spring. The AP Poll leaders – No. 1 Tennessee, No. 2 Memphis, No. 3 North Carolina, No. 4 UCLA and No. 5 Texas – are definitely the cream of the college crop, and that’s not including title contenders Georgetown, Kansas and Duke, among a host of others.
And speaking of Duke, the Blue Devils have resumed their heated rivalry with UNC this year after a couple of lackluster seasons from one team or the other. Both squads have been consistently around the Top 5 this year, with the first game between them a bloody and hard-fought 89-78 Duke win. In terms of college basketball, they’re Yankees/Red Sox, with their final game coming on the last day of the regular season, March 9. Duke has been spreading the floor and winning with its three-point shooting, which is one of the biggest keys to March success. But North Carolina’s Tyler Hansbrough is in the running for Player of the Year, and the Tar Heels are equally as tough inside as Duke is from the perimeter. A healthy Duke/UNC rivalry benefits the entire game, and they’re as competitive this year as they’ve been in a long time.
Another of the running themes from the college game this year has been smaller schools in the Top 25, continuing a trend that has developed over the last couple of seasons. With the success of schools like Gonzaga and Valparaiso in the late-90s, other small colleges were able to attract more talented players and raise their level of play. As a result, some members of this year’s Top 25 – I’m looking at you, Butler, Drake and Kent State – who wouldn’t even have been able to sniff a national ranking a decade ago are now being ranked among the top teams in the county. But that doesn’t mean these teams are flukes – Butler, which was ranked in the Top 10 until a weekend loss to Drake, has NBA talent in senior guard A.J. Graves, and Kent State is the dominant team in a difficult MAC conference. And though those schools probably won’t get close to winning an NCAA title (runs like George Mason’s only come around once in a blue moon), they should make some bigger-name teams very nervous come tournament time.
Speaking of the tournament, now is as good a time as any to run through my early favorites, some upset specials and some bubble teams that have to improve their records before Selection Sunday, March 16. Briefly, here we go.
Teams on top
My four probable No. 1 seeds at this point are Tennessee, Texas, Memphis and North Carolina. Tennessee and Memphis have been the two best teams in the country for the past two months, and barring surprising losses in their conference tournaments, they’ve cemented their status as No. 1 seeds. I think UNC will split its season series with Duke and then beat them again in the ACC Tournament, giving them a No. 1 seed. Texas is the best of the remaining teams, though if they get upset in the tough Big 12 (and it could definitely happen), Kansas would be the likely beneficiary, assuming they make it though. UCLA is also in the running, but with their conference (the Pac-10) as weak as it is this season, they would need a dominating final few weeks to get the nod.
Watch out
As for some of the better teams that could take a tumble in the tournament’s opening round, the Connecticut Huskies have won a lot of close games this year, but they’ve gotten a lot of fortunate calls too. They’re probably not as good as their 21-6 record indicates, and they could be pushed out by a physical team. Someone from the Big 10 will also be going home early – it’s an historic precedent – which doesn’t bode well for front-runners Indiana (which will be shaken up after the Kelvin Sampson recruiting scandal) and Wisconsin. And there are still questions about Memphis, who played a very easy schedule this season and could be prime for an upset.
Bubble time
One good week can make or break some of these teams, but in the interest of highlighting some of the higher-profile teams that are in danger of missing March Madness, start with Pittsburgh, which had its dance card all-but-punched before losing to Louisville on Sunday. They should still be in decent shape, but they need to win at West Virginia this week to keep the pressure off themselves in the Big East Tournament. Ohio State, fresh off playing in the championship game last season, is on the bubble at 17-10 overall. With a tough stretch run (three games against four of the top Big 10 teams), they could be in trouble. And Arizona, a perennial title contender that has struggled this year, needs to push UCLA to the limit this weekend to cement their bid.