The Patriots are on the verge of cementing their status as one of the NFL’s great dynasties, up there with the 1940s-’50s Cleveland Browns, the ’70s Pittsburgh Steelers and ’80s San Francisco 49ers. This year’s model, currently 18-0, is quite possibly the best team ever. They’ve dominated and won close games, been both overpowering and resourceful and have already beaten the Giants once this season. So this Super Bowl should have little drama, right?
Wrong. These Giants are a different team than the one New England beat 38-35 in the season finale. They’re more confident, healthier and tougher defensively. And while they won’t have an easy time beating the Patriots, I think they can definitively give them a game. As for the winner, let’s break down all the phases of the teams to see who really has the edge.
Offense: This is one part of the game plan where there’s no question – the Patriots have the superior firepower. Led by Tom Brady, the Pats’ offense has weapons at every position – Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth at receiver, Laurence Maroney at running back and Kevin Faulk and Jabar Gaffney as capable backups. The Giants aren’t slouches – they ranked 14th in the league in points per game and 16th in yards – and they’ve looked good in the playoffs, particularly with Eli Manning playing the best football of his career. With the emergence of running back Ahmad Bradshaw, the Giants have a double-threat rushing attack that should be able to gouge the Patriots, and receivers Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress will get their numbers too. But if they’re left unchecked, Brady and the Patriots are capable of piling up a ridiculous amount of points.
Defense: Both teams ranked among the top 10 in the league in yards allowed this season, but given the way they’ve played over the last month of the season, the Giants get the nod from me here. Their defensive line is possibly the best in the league, led by Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck, and their secondary, which will be charged with shutting down New England’s receivers, has played exceptionally well in the postseason. The Patriots have been stout all season long, but they’ve taken a step back defensively over the second half of the season. They’ve still got a prolific linebacking corps that does an excellent job in pass coverage and in controlling running lanes, but a majority of the starters are over 30 years old. Even with two weeks off before the big game, the veteran defense won’t be in early season form, which gives me reason to think that the Giants will be able to move the ball against them.
Special Teams: Both teams have dynamic return men (Welker for the Pats, Domenik Hixon and Bradshaw for the Giants), but the Patriots have the stronger kicking game. Placekicker Stephen Gostkowski is a more solid option than Lawrence Tynes, though neither should have problems in the Arizona desert, and Patriots punter Chris Hanson is a clear step up over the Giants’ ancient Jeff Feagles. But with the quality of both offenses, field position may not end up being a serious handicap – both team have shown themselves capable of putting together long drives.
Coaching: Although Patriots coach Bill Belichick is rightly credited as being the reigning NFL super-genius, Tom Coughlin is no slouch, and he’ll have the Giants ready for the number of different looks that the Patriots will throw at them. Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is a possible head coaching candidate who has drawn up some outstanding game plans over the last six weeks, while New England offense coordinator Josh McDaniels has done a terrific job of spreading the ball around among his offensive personnel. The Patriots make halftime adjustments better than any team in football, but both coaching staffs will have their teams ready to play come Sunday.
X-Factors: For the Giants, it’s clear that running back Bradshaw is going to need to be heavily involved in the game plan. Bradshaw is cut from the same mold as Tiki Barber – relatively short but shifty, and tough to bring down in the open field. He’s emerged over the past several weeks as New York’s most dynamic rushing threat, and he’ll be counted on to make an impact. Tight end Kevin Boss has filled in well for injured Jeremy Shockey, and he’ll need to keep it up as a safety valve for Eli Manning. And on defense, nickelback Corey Webster will need to continue his high level of play to shut down New England’s passing attack. For the Patriots, Kevin Faulk is likely to play a major role in third-down situations, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Brady turn to Welker often down the stretch. Defensive end Jarvis Green could also play a part in disrupting Manning and the Giants’ rhythm.
And how do I see the game going? The Patriots will come out hot, riding the expectations of their perfect season. But if the Giants are able to hang with them and keep it close through the first half, I think New York’s physical defense will be able to limit New England’s attack, and a balanced offense from the Giants will put some points on the board. And in one of the biggest Super Bowl upsets of all time, the Giants will end New England’s perfect run and knock off the Patriots. Game MVP? That’ll be Brandon Jacobs, with a couple of short-yardage touchdowns and some serious clock-killing running in the fourth quarter. Say goodbye to Tiki, and hello to an NFL Championship. Score: NY Giants 31, Patriots 27.
Season record: 130-48.