The eight remaining teams in the NFL playoffs make up one of the strongest postseason slates in recent memory. In the AFC, we’ve got the perfect Patriots, the Colts (who in any other season would have been the clear class of the league), an underrated Jacksonville team that became the first club to ever win in Pittsburgh twice in the same season, and the Chargers, who are a dangerous team despite their early season inconsistencies.
The NFC, while definitely a notch below its big league brother, has four teams that can legitimately say they have a shot at the Super Bowl: the front-running Cowboys, the rejuvenated Packers, the veteran Seahawks and the unpredictable but dangerous Giants. Of the four, the Giants are playing with the most confidence right now, but they also face the most difficult path – starting with this week in Dallas, where they suffered their only road loss of an otherwise exceptional (7-1 in the regular season) away schedule. And since the Giants are usually the focus of this column, that’s where we’ll start this week.
New York Giants (11-6) at Dallas (13-3): There are a lot of compelling subplots to this game – despite the fact that the Cowboys beat the Giants twice during the regular season, this one should look at lot different from either of those. Eli Manning and the Giants are playing with as much confidence as they have since Eli first got to town, and the Cowboys are beat up – especially Terrell Owens, although he should be healthy enough to play against New York. Make no mistake – this will be a high-scoring game, and if I had more confidence in Eli’s ability to stay cool down the stretch, I’d feel more comfortable calling for an upset. But despite Manning’s newfound poise, I still think Tony Romo will step up when it counts, and a late mistake will doom the Giants to another playoff loss. But here’s hoping I’m wrong. Score: Dallas 27, New York 23.
Seattle (11-6) at Green Bay (13-3): This has the chance to be the most exciting game on the board this week, a clash between dynamic passing offenses and attacking defenses. The Seahawks bounced back after letting Washington back into the game last week, and the Packers will be in trouble if they allow the kind of pressure on Brett Favre that the Redskins allowed on Todd Collins last week. But you can’t overstate the importance of Lambeau Field and the mystique of the “frozen tundra,” where game-time temperatures next week are expected to be in the 20s. For that reason, and because I like Packers running back Ryan Grant more than Seattle’s Shawn Alexander/Maurice Morris combination, the Packers are the pick. Favre will outplay Matt Hasselbeck and Green Bay will move on. Score: Green Bay 24, Seattle 17.
Jacksonville (12-5) at New England (16-0): Clearly, the Patriots are heavy favorites coming into this game – 12 points was the early week spread – but they can be beaten. Teams with a dominant rushing attack who are capable of controlling the clock present a stiff challenge for the Pats juggernaut, and that’s an area of the game that Jacksonville excels in. To beat New England, they’ll need to win the time of possession battle, avoid mistakes from quarterback David Garrard (who looked shaky in the first big start of his career last week) and rely on their defense to slow down Tom Brady. They have a chance to accomplish the first two, but I don’t think they’ll be able to stifle Brady for the entire game. In an intense and physical match, Brady and the Patriots will pull away late for the win. Score: New England 24, Jacksonville 13.
San Diego (12-5) at Indianapolis (13-3): The Chargers were in snooze mode for the first half last week before they turned it on to knock the Titans out of the playoffs, while the Colts have had two weeks to get ready to begin their Super Bowl defense. San Diego beat Indianapolis earlier this season in what was arguably the worst game (6 interceptions!) of Peyton Manning’s career. He won’t have that kind of game this time out, and even if the Chargers manage to hang with the Colts for a half or so, they’ll break down eventually, especially if tight end Antonio Gates misses any part of the game with the knee injury he suffered this week. Prepare for an AFC Championship game rematch. Score: Indianapolis 31, San Diego 20.
Last week’s record: 3-1. Overall: 126-46.