As I write this, it’s safe to say that the NFL division races are about wrapped up. Actually, it was safe to say that about two weeks ago, but now we can have a serious discussion about the wild card prospects in each conference. With only three weeks left in the regular season, some teams are looking at the probability of having to win out to have a shot at the playoffs.
Let’s start in the NFC, where there are six teams still alive for the two wild card spots, including the front-running Giants and Vikings and the Redskins, Lions, Saints and Cardinals. In the best shape are the Giants (currently 9-4 and needing a win next week against the Redskins to clinch a playoff spot) and Vikings (the only team other than the division leaders and Giants above .500 at 7-6). The Vikes control their own destiny and have three winnable games left – home dates against Chicago and Washington and the season finale in Denver. If they falter, the team best poised among the remaining 6-7 squads might be the winner of next week’s game between the Cardinals and Saints (which is previewed below). Both teams have subpar opponents in their final two contests, but it may not matter – Minnesota and New York clearly control their own futures.
In the AFC, the path is a little murkier. Only one team (the Patriots) has clinched a division title, but in all likelihood the Steelers, Colts and Chargers will hold onto their division leads. That leaves one spot to the Jaguars (in the best shape at 9-4 and very likely to get in) and one likely left for the winner of this week’s Browns/Bills tilt (also previewed below). Other teams in contention are the Titans (tough schedule the rest of the way) and the Broncos (at 6-7 though, they’re virtually out of it).
And this week will go a long way toward figuring it out. So let’s get started.
Arizona (6-7) at New Orleans (6-7): The loser of this game is pretty much out of the playoff race, which is a shame, because the Saints, despite their inconsistencies, are still an exciting team, and the Cardinals are competitive for the first time in a decade. Arizona is depending on Kurt Warner to win this game, and it’s not gonna happen – the former MVP threw five interceptions last week and has been battling injuries all season. The Saints and Drew Brees aren’t out of it yet, and they’ll find a way to win this week. Score: New Orleans 24, Arizona 17.
Buffalo (7-6) at Cleveland (8-5): The Bills have been amazingly resilient this season, losing player after player to injury and still finding a way to be above .500 in December. The Browns have been one of the league’s top feel-good stories, and a win here would just about cement a playoff berth for them. Cleveland has been susceptible to the big play this season, but they figure to be buoyed by the home crowd in what will be a playoff atmosphere. I think the Browns will try to control this game on the ground, and force enough Buffalo mistakes to put points on the board. A gallant effort won’t be enough for the Bills. Score: Cleveland 27, Buffalo 23.
New York Jets (3-10) at New England (13-0): The Patriots have been waiting for this game since after Week 1, when the Jets accused them of videotaping signals from the sidelines. Many pundits (myself included) believe that’s one of the reasons why New England has been so eager to run up the score against overmatched opponents. The Jets are better then their record indicates, but they are definitely overmatched here. So New England will probably score early and often, and the game will probably get chippy – here’s hoping no one suffers an unnecessary injury. The Pats win big. Score: New England 41, NY Jets 20.
Washington (6-7) at New York Giants (9-4): This game is a must-win for the Redskins, which makes it dangerous for the Giants, who can’t afford a complete collapse down the stretch. Washington came on strong under backup QB Todd Collins last week, but the Giants’ pass rush will make it difficult for him in this one. And even if the Giants continue to struggle offensively (can it be that hard to get Jeremy Shockey the ball?), they should be able to hold on at home. Score: NY Giants 20, Washington 17.
Chicago (5-8) at Minnesota (7-6): With the playoffs clearly in sight, the Vikings will be focused on neutralizing the Bears’ defensive strength – and that means a steady dose of probable Rookie of the Year Adrian Peterson. The Bears will be forced to put the ball in the air, which doesn’t bode well for their chances either. A preseason Super Bowl favorite, the Bears are going nowhere fast now, and the Vikings will keep pushing toward the postseason with a win here. Score: Minnesota 23, Chicago 13.
Quick picks: San Diego will beat Detroit, Indianapolis will have no problems with Oakland, Pittsburgh will take care of business at home against Jacksonville, St. Louis will upset Green Bay and the Cowboys will keep rolling against the Eagles.
Last week’s record: 10-0. Overall: 101-37.