The 2007 local elections marked a new political parity between the two major parties in Dutchess County. They’re at a new and unprecedented level of competitiveness with each other.
In terms of political enrollment, the competition can’t get much closer than it is. On July 12, according to the state, the combined Dutchess County enrollment of the Republican (53,490), Conservative (3,181) and Right to Life (718) parties was 57,389. The combined enrollment of the Democratic (48,963), Working Families (504), Green (551), Independence (6,516) and Liberal (846) parties was 57,380.
Talk about balance! Only nine voters (out of a total of 157,742 enrollees) separated the parties of the right and the parties of the left. Some 24,997 voters were not enrolled in any political party.
Because a higher percentage of Republicans vote, because the Independence Party actually plays both sides of the political spectrum, and because local post-election figures will give the GOP a bump, Dutchess County Republicans maintain a statistical whisker of an advantage. But the Democrats, who are also doing well nationally, have more momentum on their side.
This year, Dutchess County saw a closely contested and widely celebrated race for county executive. After 62,222 votes were tallied (a small number are still to come), only 2,082 votes separated incumbent county executive Bill Steinhaus and his Democratic challenger, Joseph Ruggiero. Controlling for political affiliation, Steinhaus held his own particularly well in the communities along the Hudson River from Red Hook to Beacon. By contrast, Ruggiero picked up more support than had been expected by political enrollments in the mostly Republican southern and eastern parts of the county.
The results in this particular race showed tentative movement away from both ends toward the middle of the political spectrum. Some conservative voters backed Ruggiero because they believed it was time for a leadership change, and some liberals believed Steinhaus had done a good enough job in his 16 years as county executive to merit a fifth term.
True, the closely watched race for county executive featured enthusiastic partisanship – and subsequent harsh feelings – on both sides. But that doesn’t mean that the same pattern will prevail now that the election is over. The major players know each other very well.
The route that the leadership on both sides is likely to pick is by means foreordained. In a situation where the forces are so evenly balanced, politics becomes a social activity characterized by a low degree of predictability. The players will either work together or they won’t. The odds-on bet is that they’ll do both. On the heels of the November election, a unanimous legislative vote last week on the 2008 county budget can be regarded as trial balloon for inter-party cooperation. Could they reach a deal?
They could. Though unwilling to create a minority clerk’s position in the legislature’s office, the Democrats instead agreed to a third assistant clerk in county GOP clerk Brad Kendall’s office. Both legislative sides seemed happy with the compromise. Time will tell whether this kind of rapprochement will extend to other matters.
Steinhaus holds some important cards. He has won re-election for an unprecedented fifth term. The Dutchess County Charter gives the executive considerable power. And Steinhaus supporters figure that an experienced, incumbent county executive will wield power more effectively than any new legislature could.
Roger Higgins, whom the new majority has picked as legislature chair, has considerable leeway, at least initially, in leading the Democrats. At the same organizational meeting at which the victorious Democrats picked Higgins to carry their standard as legislature chairman, they chose Sandra Goldberg of Wappinger as majority leader and Margaret Fettes, representing Amenia, Washington and a portion of Stanford and Pleasant Valley, as assistant majority leader. They also selected Dan French, the No. 2 Democrat at the county elections board and a Beekman town board member, as the new clerk of the legislature.
When Ulster County elected a Democratic legislature two years ago, they chose Kathy Mihm, also the second-ranking Democrat at the county elections board, as clerk of their legislature. As well as being skilled in diplomacy, Mihm said, a clerk of the legislature has to be well-known to the legislators (she had served four years as a county legislator), has to be familiar with the entire county, has to have the confidence of the party county chair, and needs to have a networking relationship with the town clerks.
Present legislature chairman and Pine Plains legislator Gary Cooper is expected to vie for the minority leader’s position at the Dutchess GOP’s organizational caucus next Monday, Dec. 17. In his year as legislature chairman, Cooper has made it a point to reach out to all members. It’ll take five votes other than his own for him to prevail at the party caucus.
The likelihood of political cooperation among the leaders is dependent on the issues brought to the table. Issues have their own constituencies. The cost of housing prisoners, for instance, brings out a different support base than do well testing, electrical licensing or park corridors. The issues the leaders raise in their platforms during the next few weeks will provide crucial information about their ability and willingness to cooperate with each other.
There was abundant additional evidence beyond party enrollment to confirm the remarkable de-facto political balance between the major parties. None of the candidates for countywide office this year had the endorsement of both major parties. But six major-party candidates — three Republicans and three Democrats — vied for three seats as judges of the state Supreme Court’s regional judicial district.
None of the candidates were exactly household names in Dutchess County, and most people probably voted by party affiliation. The results showed all six closely bunched together. Democrat Francis Nicolai got 23,175 Dutchess County votes, Elaine Slobod had 22,631 votes and Robert Berliner recorded 21,972 votes on the Democratic line. Republican Rory Ballantoni got 22,318 Dutchess County votes, while Christine Kahulik received 22,196 and William Sherwood got 21,497, also on the Republican line.
That’s political parity.
In the races for county legislature, four candidates – two Democrats and two Republicans – were unopposed. Fewer than 200 votes separated winner and loser in 13 contests for the remaining 21 single-member seats.
That’s political parity, too.