The hot topic in the sports world this week is criticism of the BCS, college football’s Bowl Championship Series, for its end-of-year seedings that have Ohio State and LSU playing in the BCS Championship game on Jan. 7 in New Orleans. Pundits argue that there are a number of other deserving teams who should get the title shot over an Ohio State team that played a weak schedule or an LSU team with two losses. But rather than argue over a process that proves itself flawed year after year, or talk about the historic track that the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins find themselves on (see Audibles this week for a brief take on that), I thought I would turn this column over to baseball ponderings.
The hot stove league, as baseball’s prime offseason dealing period is called, is still waiting to be jolted into action as of this writing. For a brief time after the World Series, both the game’s best pitcher (Johan Santana) and best player (Alex Rodriguez) were on the market. Now, after Rodriguez re-signed with the Yankees last week, only Santana remains, and he is the hottest commodity on the table. Accordingly though, only the teams with the deepest pockets and most thoroughly developed minor league systems have a chance at landing the Minnesota Twins’ ace, led by (who else?) the Yankees and Red Sox, along with the Los Angeles Angels and Dodgers and possibly the Mets, although those rumors have cooled in recent weeks.
But regardless of whether Santana leaves Minnesota (and his asking price is exorbitantly high, rumored to include Philip Hughes or Ian Kennedy from the Yankees or John Lester or Jacoby Ellsbury from the Red Sox), he is only one of the high-profile stars that will be switching teams this winter. Former Twins centerfielder Torri Hunter was one of the first big-name free agents to move, signing a five-year, $90-million deal with the Angels two weeks ago and in the process spurning a similarly big contract from the Texas Rangers. Atlanta Braves centerfielder Andruw Jones is another star free agent, and with owners’ winter meetings concluding this week, the trade market could also take off.
For the New York squads, pitching seems like it will be the main area of improvement. Both the Mets and Yankees need pitching help, especially with the Mets losing Tom Glavine to Atlanta and the Yankees trying to re-stock their rotation after a year that saw them run through minor league pitchers like tissue paper. That’s one of the main reasons that Santana is valued so highly – rarely is a pitcher at the very top of his game so readily available, and even if the asking price seems ridiculously high, it could be argued that a former Cy Young award-winning lefty in the prime of his career is worth it. But if the Yankees have to part with Hughes, as well as Melky Cabrera and other minor league talent to land him, I’d rather they didn’t.
First of all, they’d only be landing one year of Santana (what remains on his existing contract) and the opportunity to negotiate with him during the season. As good as Santana has been, he’s 28 years old, and he’s logged a ton of innings (912) over the past four years. The Yanks’ stable of young starters are all younger than 24, and although their upside may not match the known ability of Santana (particularly with the need to find an ace to match up with Boston’s Josh Beckett), that’s a lot to deal away for the possibility of enjoying only one year of Johan.
The Mets find themselves in a similar situation, assuming they’re still keeping on eye on the Santana sweepstakes. Even if Santana ends up in Boston or New York, they still need a top-of-the-rotation starter. Rumors have young aces like Baltimore’s Erik Bedard or Oakland’s Dan Haren landing with the Mets, but assuming the Yankees miss out on Santana, those pitchers could be in the Yanks’ sights as well. Even if Santana is traded this week (late deadline rumors have him landing in Boston), the trading frenzy may not ramp up until the market for stars is more clearly set. When that happens is anyone’s guess. But both New York teams need to make at least one big move this winter to restore their fans’ faith in the clubs. My prediction? The Yankees get Haren in a typically shrewd deal by Oakland GM Billy Beane, and the Mets console themselves with Bedard, who could be lights-out in the weaker National League.
Around the rest of the league, some teams are more clearly poised to make a move than others. The Arizona Diamondbacks, NL finalists this season, need one more high-quality starter to be considered clear favorites in the National League. The Dodgers, after hiring Joe Torre away from the Yankees in October, are also looking to make a splash by adding a big bat (rumored to be Florida Marlins’ third baseman Miguel Cabrera) to their lineup. Over in the American League, the Angels finally seem committed to giving Vladimir Guerrero protection in their lineup, adding Hunter and keeping their eyes open for other deals. In a weak free agent year, many teams may resist doling out big contracts in the hope of saving their money for next winter, when some big-name players (Jeremy Bonderman, Brad Penny, Jake Peavy, Mark Texiera and Guerrero, among others) will be free agents. That’s assuming none sign contract extensions during the 2008 season, keeping them with their current teams. Obviously, nothing is guaranteed. It’s not called the hot stove league for nothing, folks.
Now when do the Patriots play next?