It was an ugly day around here last Sunday for obvious reasons: I put up my worst mark of the year. It seemed like every hot team I picked (Kansas City, Detroit, New Orleans) got tripped up. Every team I pegged for a bounceback (Indy, the Giants) managed to give the game away. Shoot, even the games I didn’t forecast here went badly. An astonishing nine road teams won last week, and seven underdogs came out on the winning side. At this point, here are the top five teams in the NFL:
1. New England (9-0)
2. Dallas (8-1)
3. Indianapolis (7-2)
4. Pittsburgh (7-2)
5. Green Bay (8-1)
Teams like the Chargers, Saints and Seahawks, expected to be among the best in their conference, are limping along with mediocre records. And as last weekend’s results showed, it’s almost impossible to predict when a good team is going to take a fall.
But here’s another shot at it, anyway, starting with the Patriots and their continued quest for a perfect season.
New England (9-0) at Buffalo (5-4): This is an intriguing matchup, and not just because the Pats are rolling along. Buffalo is one of the biggest surprises in the league at 5-4, thanks to the toughness of head coach Dick Jauron and an underrated defense. Plus, they always manage to give the Pats a difficult game. In another season, I’d say the Patriots were vulnerable coming off a bye week, but until Tom Brady and his offense get slowed down, I’m not picking Buffalo unless there’s a blizzard rolling in. Sunday forecast: Showers, 40 degrees, and a Patriots win. Score: New England 34, Buffalo 17.
NY Giants (6-3) at Detroit (6-3): Here we go again, Giants fans: After starting 6-2 for the third straight year, the G-Men dropped their ninth game for the third straight year as well and now have to travel to Detroit to play the potentially dangerous Lions. Detroit QB Jon Kitna isn’t as mobile as Dallas QB Tony Romo (who killed the Giants last weekend), so New York should be able to get enough pressure to slow Detroit’s attack. If they can straighten out their running game, the Giants will come out with a win. Score: NY Giants 24, Detroit 20.
Kansas City (4-5) at Indianapolis (7-2): Peyton Manning had the worst game of his pro career last week, throwing six interceptions against the Chargers, and Adam Vinatieri missed two kicks in the same game for the first time in six years. Despite those blunders, the Colts still nearly managed a comeback against San Diego, falling 23-21 on the road. Kansas City is banged up, starting Brodie Croyle at QB and missing franchise running back Larry Johnson. With the race in the AFC South tightening (Jacksonville and Tennessee are now only a game behind the Colts), Indy will rebound to win this one at home. Score: Indianapolis 28, Kansas City 20.
Carolina (4-5) at Green Bay (8-1): The Packers are looking more and more like a dangerous team this season, with a developing rushing game, a defense that is among the best in the NFC and a quarterback, timeless Brett Favre, playing like an MVP candidate. After shutting out the Vikings last week, Green Bay gets the inconsistent Panthers at home this week, and if you’re asking me to pick Vinny Testaverde on the road playing behind a suspect offensive line, it ain’t gonna happen. Give this one to the Packers. Score: Green Bay 23, Carolina 10.
San Diego (5-4) at Jacksonville (6-3): One of the most interesting games on the board matches the still-dangerous Chargers with the tough-as-nails Jaguars. Despite their win last week, the Chargers still look limited on offense, with QB Philip Rivers regressing and head coach Norv Turner unable to make a consistent commitment to the running game. With his players beginning to question his methods, Turner’s in danger of losing this team. And with a short week and boisterous crowd in Jacksonville, the Jags’ defense will be enough to stop the Chargers. Score: Jacksonville 20, San Diego 17.
Quick picks: Philadelphia will keep Miami winless, Dallas should have no problem with Washington at home, Pittsburgh will keep the Jets grounded, Seattle will handle Chicago and Denver will beat Tennessee on Monday night.
Last week’s record: 4-6. Overall: 67-31.