It’s becoming an Audibles tradition – examining the undefeated and winless teams remaining after three weeks of NFL action and taking stock of all the surprises.
Three weeks is a good prognosticating point – A 3-0 start is usually the sign of a promising season (a team could play under .500 the rest of the way and usually still make the playoffs) and an 0-3 start is an unofficial funeral bell for the year (no 0-3 teams from the past two seasons have made the playoffs). This year, the scene is pretty balanced – five teams (Green Bay, Dallas, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and New England) are off to 3-0 starts, while five (Atlanta, Miami, St. Louis, New Orleans and Buffalo) find themselves winless. Of the undefeated teams, only Green Bay is the real shocker – Brett Favre still looks about 10 years younger than he actually is on the field, the Green Bay’s defense is one of the better ones in the league. The rest figured to be good teams this season, and they’ve done nothing to dispel that thought.
Of the winless teams, New Orleans has to rank as the biggest surprise – from preseason Super Bowl favorites by many (me included) to a defensively challenged and offensively inconsistent mess. Will they turn it around in time for the playoffs? It’s doubtful, but with a favorable schedule and some luck, it could be done. The rest of the also-rans? See you next year. None will be contending at any point this season.
And now, on to this week’s picks.
Green Bay (3-0) at Minnesota (1-2): The Packers showed guts in getting past San Diego last week, and Brett Favre has a chance to set the NFL’s all-time passing touchdown record this week (he’s tied with Dan Marino atop the list with 420). The Vikings lost a close one to the Chiefs last week, but they’ll be hard-pressed to put a ton of points on the board against the Pack. I think Favre will throw 2 TDs, and the Packers will rally late to improve to 4-0. Score: Green Bay 20, Minnesota 16.
Chicago (1-2) at Detroit (2-1): This could be quarterback Rex Grossman’s last stand – he’s off to an awful start and Chicago fans are clamoring for backup Brian Griese. If the Lions were a bit tougher on defense, I’d feel comfortable picking against the Bears, but after watching Philadelphia ring up the Lions for 56 points last week, I think the Bears will beat Detroit one way or the other. If they go down early, Griese will replace Grossman and get the job done. Score: Chicago 20, Detroit 10.
New York Jets (1-2) at Buffalo (0-3): The Bills are going to be smarting after taking a beating from the Patriots last week, while the Jets looked OK (but not great) in beating the Dolphins. The cold winds haven’t started to swirl upstate yet, and even though I’m not sure Chad Pennington will last the season, he did have good control of the offense last weekend. If the Jets can avoid any serious defensive lapses, and if Buffalo starter J.P. Losman misses this game with the knee injury he suffered last week, the Jets should take it. Score: NY Jets 24, Buffalo 17.
Philadelphia (1-2) at New York Giants (1-2): The other New York team will try to improve to .500 at home against the Eagles, who finally woke up last week in thrashing the Lions. Although the Giants’ defense is a little suspect, I think they’ll be up for this division showdown, particularly with Donovan McNabb looking vulnerable despite his four-TD game last week. Eli and the Giants’ offense will keep making strides and hold off Philadelphia at home in what could be a thriller. Score: NY Giants 27, Philadelphia 24.
New England (3-0) at Cincinnati (1-2): Before the season started, this Monday night matchup looked like a tough battle. But the Patriots have come out smoking to start the year, outscoring their opponents by an aggregate score of 114-35 and displaying no weaknesses. Even though the Bengals can score with the best of them, Cincinnati’s defense has too many holes for me to pick against the Pats. This one will be closer than New England’s first three, but the result will be the same. Score: New England 31, Cincinnati 20.
Quick picks: Miami will earn its first win by beating Oakland, Dallas will stomp St. Louis, Houston will get back on track by beating Atlanta, Indianapolis will top Denver and in one of the week’s few upsets, Cleveland will beat inconsistent Baltimore.
Last week’s record: 8-2. Overall: 22-8.