It’s amazing how quickly things can change in the NFL. I realize that’s kind of an obvious maxim, but it was reinforced for me last Sunday night, watching my beloved New York Giants play the hated Dallas Cowboys. Just three plays into the game, Eli Manning connected with Plaxico Burress on a gorgeous 60-yard touchdown pass, and just like that, the Giants were up 6-0 and headed toward a banner season. Just tack on the extra point and let the defense get to work shutting the Cowboys out and …
One missed and brutal-looking point-after try later, the Giants had ruined what looked like a promising start to the year and given fresh ammunition to critics of head coach Tom Coughlin. Allowing 17 straight points to the Cowboys immediately after that probably didn’t help either. But such is life in the National Football League, where promising can turn to tragic in a heartbeat (look at Bills reserve tight end Kevin Everett, who suffered a horrific spinal injury during a game Sunday at Buffalo) and perception can be rendered meaningless in just as short a time.
But parked on the couch for a marathon opening Sunday, I did manage to collect my thoughts on the opening of another NFL season on paper, and I’ll present them here as I come across the legible ones.
• The Giants need to get better defensively. I know that Dallas will have one of the better offenses in the NFL this season, but I also know that no team with any hope of contending for a division title can routinely give up nearly 500 yards a game. Tony Romo had an absolute field day against the Giants, who were stung by injuries (sack leader Usi Umenyiora went out with a knee injury, as did running back Brandon Jacobs) but still must do a better job defensively to be competitive. If they can’t, no amount of Eli Manning heroics will keep the Giants from becoming a last-place team. And if Manning misses significant time with his shoulder injury, the Giants’ season is effectively over, anyway.
• Grounded Jets? Jets fans are down after Week 1, no question about it, but the season is far from over for Gang Green. They ran into a buzzsaw in the form of the Patriots last weekend, but the only thing that game proved is how dominant the Patriots have a chance of being this season. To me, the most impressive aspect of their performance was not the dominance of Tom Brady and Randy Moss but rather the work of the offensive line, which gave Brady all kinds of time in the pocket. Although the Jets’ defense couldn’t manage much penetration against the Pats, they still have a promising early season schedule once they get past Baltimore this weekend (Miami, at Buffalo, at the Giants and Philadelphia) and once the QB situation settles down (seriously, Jets fans, give Pennington a chance!), they could still contend for an AFC wild card.
• Bring on the doormats. If league pundits are to be believed, there are three or four teams with a serious shot at winning the Super Bowl (Indianapolis, New England and San Diego are the consensus choices). But trust me – there are at least that many teams who will almost definitely be bottom-feeders throughout the rest of the season. Based on early returns, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs could be the worst teams in their respective conferences, at least until they get their quarterback situations figured out. Atlanta will also struggle this season (no surprise), as will Cleveland (Browns fans can’t win) and Oakland. Bank on at least two of those teams racking up 12+ losses.
• Beware the Broncos. It’s really not a gutsy call to say the Broncos are going to have a good season (they’re perennial contenders), but if I had to pick one team to surprise in the AFC this season, I’d say the Broncos have a real chance to knock out one or two of the established favorites, if last Sunday was any indication of what they can do. In their last-second win over Buffalo on the road, Denver out-gained the Bills 470-184, had a 23-13 edge in first downs and would have won the game handily if young quarterback Jay Cutler had been able to finish more often in Bills’ territory. But second-year pro Cutler looked very good for much of the game, making me think that he’s ready to be a star NFL quarterback as early as this season. With the weapons he has on offense and Denver’s usually formidable defense, they could shock some teams in the AFC.
• Watered-down NFC. There’s an emerging pattern in pro sports that’s a little concerning, and I’m not talking about drug use or dogfighting. Major League Baseball, the NBA and now the NFL all have one dominant conference (the American League, the Western Conference and the AFC) and one that is clearly weaker. Although parity still exists among individual teams, the stronger grouping of football talent is clearly in the AFC this fall, just like the strongest teams in baseball (the Red Sox, Angels, Indians and Yankees) are in the American League and the best teams in the NBA (the Suns, Spurs, Mavericks and Rockets) reside in the west. Though I’m not sure how the trend developed, much of the time it makes for less interesting prognosticating – and makes it much more difficult to gauge how good the top teams are in a weaker conference. Without the same level of competition week in and week out, it’s hard to tell if the better NFC teams really can hang with the AFC’s best. That’s why this week’s results – Indy 41, New Orleans 10 and San Diego 14, Chicago 3 –may be important in the long haul.
But remember, it’s only Week 1. In the NFL, things can change in the blink of an eye.