Hopefully, it’s a date you’ve had circled in red for a long time coming – Thursday, Sept. 6. Start time: 8:30 p.m. Defending Super Bowl-champion Colts against possible February foe New Orleans. And America’s obsession with football begins anew.
So without dipping too much into the fresh batch of storylines coming out of training camp (Tiki vs. Eli! Culpepper starting for the Raiders! Brady Quinn making a splash!), here’s my take on the upcoming season. As usual, the standard disclaimer – that I’m very likely wrong – applies. But here’s how I see things breaking down.
Best: New England Patriots
Worst: Miami Dolphins
Top Storyline: Is Randy Moss the answer in New England?
The Patriots retooled in the offseason, adding defensive muscle (in the form of linebacker Adalius Thomas and defensive tackle Kenny Smith) and offensive firepower (wide receivers Moss, Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth). Right now, that looks like more than enough to make them the favorites in the East over the N.Y. Jets, who should be sound but might not challenge for a playoff spot in a talent-laden conference. The Patriots could be the odds-on Super Bowl favorite if Moss can stay motivated and not become a locker room distraction. The Bills will be tough defensively but still lack the weapons to be a contending team, and the Dolphins, who are trusting 36-year-old Trent Green at quarterback and were downright impotent at times last season, will most likely bring up the rear.
Best: Baltimore Ravens
Worst: Cleveland Browns
Top Storyline: Is Big Ben a consistent winner in the NFL?
The Ravens surprised everyone in football with a rejuvenated defense and a 13-3 record last season, but they won’t be surprising anyone this time around. They still have more talent than anyone else in the division and their offense, led by Steve McNair and former Bills running back Willis McGahee, should be enough to propel them to the division title. Both the Steelers and Bengals will be competitive, and may even challenge for a playoff spot if they can adapt to a new coaching style (the Steelers) and or make some consistent stops on defense (the Bengals). And despite their draft day haul of franchise tackle Joe Thomas and starter-of-the-future Brady Quinn, the Browns will do well to finish near .500 this season.
Best: Indianapolis Colts
Worst: Houston Texans
Top Storyline: After all the offseason losses, can the Colts repeat?
Peyton Manning and the Colts finally won the Big One last year, but they’ve been decimated by defections and injuries, losing several key defensive personnel and raising questions about their ability to defend their title. Regardless, they’re still the class of the AFC South, and Peyton’s talents alone should be enough to get them a first-round playoff bye. The Jacksonville Jaguars will remain the second tier in the division, buoyed by defensive talent but hamstrung by questions on offense. The Titans and Texans should both win some ballgames, but neither team is prepared to make a playoff push, at least not this season.
Best: Denver Broncos
Worst: Oakland Raiders
Storyline: Is Jay Cutler ready to lead a team to the playoffs?
Perennially one of the toughest divisions in football, the West will get no easier this year, with only the Raiders firmly out of the playoff race before the season even begins (and even they’ll be better than their dismal 2-14 campaign last fall). The Chargers were the class of the West last season, but they’ll be supplanted by the Broncos this time around. With an all-new coaching staff , the Chargers won’t be able to duplicate their stellar ’06 effort, and the Broncos, led by superstar-in-the-making Jay Cutler and one of the most aggressive defenses in the NFL, will be the beneficiary. The Chargers should have enough firepower for a wild card spot, and might be joined by the Kansas City Chiefs, provided running back Larry Johnson holds up.
Best: Dallas Cowboys
Worst: Washington Redskins
Top Storyline: Is Eli Manning ready to make the leap?
Of all the transgressions I’ve committed in my life, none rankled fellow columnist Danny Lanzetta quite like my insistence on picking the Giants to win last year, even on weeks where their chances looked poor. (Hey, my take? The G-Men need all the good karma they can get). But I won’t make that mistake this time around, not until Eli Manning can show that he can be a consistent winner and the defense figures out how to replace Michael Strahan. So the Cowboys, who rode Tony Romo to the division championship last year, are my pick to repeat, with the Giants and Eagles both in the running for a playoff spot. One caveat – as is the case every year, if Donovan McNabb can stay healthy all season long, the Eagles are a serious Super Bowl threat. He’s that big of a difference-maker. The Redskins need to add more defensive muscle to be a winner.
Best: Chicago Bears
Worst: Green Bay Packers
Top Storyline: Is Rex Grossman for real?
The Bears could be the best team in the NFC this season if quarterback Rex Grossman looks more like the player he was in the team’s first eight games last year than the one he was in the second half. Grossman went from accurate and reliable to inconsistent and couldn’t rally the team in its Super Bowl loss to the Colts. Still, led by their defense, the Bears will ride roughshod over the competition in the NFC North, with the Vikings, Lions and Packers bringing up the rear, in that order. As a possible sleeper, though, the Lions are tantalizing. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz will let quarterback Jon Kitna throw the ball all over the field, which means that they could pile up yardage and points – and some surprise wins.
Best: New Orleans Saints
Worst: Atlanta Falcons
Top Storyline: Will the loss of Mike Vick ruin the Falcons?
In reference to the above question, it probably already has, as the Falcons look to be one of the worst teams in the NFL with Joey Harrington at the helm at QB. The Saints were the biggest surprise in the league last season, but they’re for real, and the offensive firepower of Drew Brees, Reggie Bush and Marques Colston will be more than enough to vault them over the Carolina Panthers, who still have the defense to contend for a wild card spot, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who won’t be much better than the Falcons.
Best: Seattle Seahawks
Worst: Arizona Cardinals
Top Storyline: Are the 49ers returning to glory?
The Seahawks will face a stern challenge from both the 49ers and the Rams this season. Seattle should have the personnel to hold off both, but the Rams are still dangerous offensively (Marc Bulger is one of the top five QBs in the league) and the 49ers have one of their best rosters in years, courtesy of high draft choices and a revamped defense (including star cornerback and former Bill Nate Clements). Still, Seattle has the benefit of one of the NFL’s best game managers (QB Matt Hasselbeck) and stoutest running backs (Shaun Alexander) and are an experienced and tough team. The Cardinals, despite a potent offense, will lag behind the rest.
I’ll skip the rest of the playoffs and get right to a Super Bowl pick. On Feb. 3, 2008, in Phoenix, Ariz., the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints, probably the two most well-rounded teams in the NFL, will do battle to determine the NFL champion. At this point, they look like the favorites to me.